Top 100 Arena Stats: S5 Week 6

 

2v2				3v3				5v5
Paladin	58	31.5%		Paladin	72	27.0%		Paladin	104	21.9%
DK	39	21.2%		DK	54	20.2%		DK	61	12.8%
Rogue	20	10.9%		Rogue	29	10.9%		Shaman	57	12.0%
Druid	13	7.1%		Hunter	28	10.5%		Mage	51	10.7%
Hunter	12	6.5%		Mage	27	10.1%		Hunter	49	10.3%
Priest	12	6.5%		Priest	20	7.5%		Priest	46	9.7%
Mage	10	5.4%		Warrior	15	5.6%		Warrior	42	8.8%
Shaman	10	5.4%		Shaman	10	3.7%		Druid	32	6.7%
Warrior	6	3.3%		Druid	9	3.4%		Rogue	20	4.2%
Warlock	4	2.2%		Warlock	3	1.1%		Warlock	13	2.7%
Total	184			Total	267			Total	475
Top 100 Avg: Week 6				Lvl 80 (US + EU)				To balance:
Paladin	26.8%			Paladin	13%			Warlock	248%
DK	18.1%			DK	13%			Druid	92%
Hunter	9.1%			Warrior	11%			Warrior	86%
Mage	8.8%			Druid	11%			Mage	14%
Rogue	8.6%			Mage	10%			Priest	14%
Priest	7.9%			Hunter	10%			Shaman	13%
Shaman	7.1%			Priest	9%			Hunter	10%
Warrior	5.9%			Rogue	8%			Rogue	-7%
Druid	5.7%			Shaman	8%			DK	-28%
Warlock	2.0%			Warlock	7%			Paladin	-51%
Top 100 Avg: Week 5				Weekly Trending
Paladin	27.5%			Warlock	54.7%
DK	19.4%			Shaman	17.7%
Mage	9.3%			Druid	12.2%
Rogue	9.3%			Hunter	9.7%
Hunter	8.3%			Warrior	7.4%
Priest	8.3%			Paladin	-2.6%
Shaman	6.0%			Priest	-4.8%
Warrior	5.5%			Mage	-5.8%
Druid	5.1%			DK	-6.8%
Warlock	1.3%			Rogue	-7.0%

 

 

 

Weekly Trending

 

Largest Mover:

Warlock, which gained 54.7% from last week.

 

Overall Movement:

128.7 percentage points

 

I'm surprised that there wasn't more movement with all the changes from 3.0.8.

 

My predictions from last week were not even close.  So, no predictions this week.

 

Top 100 Arena Stats: S5 Week 5

2v2				3v3				5v5
Paladin	65	33.5%		Paladin	76	26.1%		Paladin	113	22.8%
DK	50	25.8%		DK	57	19.6%		DK	64	12.9%
Rogue	20	10.3%		Rogue	35	12.0%		Mage	52	10.5%
Mage	14	7.2%		Hunter	32	11.0%		Shaman	52	10.5%
Priest	11	5.7%		Mage	30	10.3%		Priest	49	9.9%
Druid	10	5.2%		Priest	27	9.3%		Hunter	46	9.3%
Hunter	9	4.6%		Warrior	14	4.8%		Warrior	45	9.1%
Shaman	9	4.6%		Druid	9	3.1%		Druid	35	7.1%
Warrior	5	2.6%		Shaman	8	2.7%		Rogue	27	5.5%
Warlock	1	0.5%		Warlock	3	1.0%		Warlock	12	2.4%
Total	194			Total	291			Total	495
Top 100 Avg: Week 5				Lvl 80 (US + EU)				To balance:
Paladin	27.5%			Paladin	13%			Warlock	429%
DK	19.4%			DK	13%			Warrior	118%
Mage	9.3%			Warrior	12%			Druid	115%
Rogue	9.3%			Druid	11%			Shaman	34%
Hunter	8.3%			Mage	10%			Hunter	20%
Priest	8.3%			Hunter	10%			Priest	9%
Shaman	6.0%			Priest	9%			Mage	7%
Warrior	5.5%			Rogue	8%			Rogue	-14%
Druid	5.1%			Shaman	8%			DK	-33%
Warlock	1.3%			Warlock	7%			Paladin	-53%
Top 100 Avg: Week 4				Weekly Trending
Paladin	26.0%			Shaman	21.7%
DK	17.8%			DK	9.5%
Mage	11.0%			Hunter	9.2%
Rogue	9.8%			Paladin	5.8%
Priest	9.4%			Warlock	-5.5%
Hunter	7.6%			Rogue	-5.9%
Warrior	6.3%			Priest	-11.7%
Druid	6.2%			Warrior	-12.8%
Shaman	4.9%			Mage	-14.7%
Warlock	1.4%			Druid	-17.1%

Largest Mover:

Shaman, which gained 21.7% from last week.
 
Overall Movement:
113.9 percentage points
 

I'm actually surprised by the overall movement from Weekly Trending.  This has been the most active shift in numbers from week to week since I started keeping track of the Weekly Trending.
 

Next week the Top 100 Average should have the biggest shakeup in numbers from week to week since 3.0.8 patch just hit live servers.
 

Predictions for next week representation:

• Paladins remain unchanged

Paladins did not receive many real nerfs.

• Death Knights lose 20%

Death Knights received huge nerfs, especially in the Unholy tree which is what 99% of all Death Knights are specced into for PvP.

• Hunters lose 20%

99% of all Hunters in PvP were specced 50/21, which now will probably not exist since Readiness no longer resets Bestial Wrath.  Arena is not slow enough for Marksmanship or Survival to succeed as of yet, so Hunters should see a drop in representation.

 

Top 100 Arena Stats: S5 Week 4

2v2				3v3				5v5
Paladin	63	32.5%		Paladin	69	23.2%		Paladin	111	22.2%
DK	48	24.7%		DK	52	17.5%		Mage	56	11.2%
Rogue	19	9.8%		Mage	39	13.1%		DK	55	11.0%
Priest	16	8.2%		Rogue	39	13.1%		Shaman	54	10.8%
Mage	15	7.7%		Priest	30	10.1%		Warrior	53	10.6%
Druid	13	6.7%		Hunter	26	8.8%		Priest	49	9.8%
Hunter	11	5.7%		Warrior	17	5.7%		Hunter	42	8.4%
Warrior	5	2.6%		Druid	13	4.4%		Druid	37	7.4%
Shaman	3	1.5%		Shaman	7	2.4%		Rogue	33	6.6%
Warlock	1	0.5%		Warlock	5	1.7%		Warlock	10	2.0%
Total	194			Total	297			Total	500
Top 100 Avg: Week 4				Lvl 80 (US + EU)				To balance:
Paladin	25.97%			Paladin	14%			Warlock	400%
DK	17.75%			DK	13%			Warrior	90%
Mage	10.69%			Warrior	12%			Druid	79%
Rogue	9.84%			Druid	11%			Shaman	63%
Priest	9.38%			Mage	10%			Hunter	31%
Hunter	7.61%			Hunter	10%			Priest	-4%
Warrior	6.30%			Priest	9%			Mage	-6%
Druid	6.16%			Rogue	8%			Rogue	-19%
Shaman	4.90%			Shaman	8%			DK	-27%
Warlock	1.40%			Warlock	7%			Paladin	-46%
Top 100 Avg: Week 3				Weekly Trending
Paladin	26.89%			Warrior	15.7%
DK	17.07%			Priest	7.3%
Mage	10.81%			DK	4.0%
Rogue	9.92%			Druid	0.0%
Priest	8.74%			Rogue	-0.8%
Hunter	7.82%			Mage	-1.2%
Druid	6.16%			Hunter	-2.7%
Warrior	5.44%			Warlock	-2.7%
Shaman	5.04%			Shaman	-2.8%
Warlock	1.44%			Paladin	-3.4%

 
The only significant classes on the move this week are Warriors and Priests, which gained 15.7% and 7.3% respectively.  Priests are almost perfectly balanced representation wise, while Warriors still need much higher representation to be considered balanced.

Warlocks failed to gain ground this week, and actually lost some ground.  Warlocks need to see a 4x increase in representation in the Top 100 to be considered balanced.  I have a feeling this class will see a big hike in representation if resilience is buffed.

Warriors, Druids and Shamans need a major boost to be considered balanced.  While Hunters need a decent boost to be considered balanced.

Mages are like Priests in which they are almost perfectly balanced.  Rogues and Death Knights need a decent nerf to be considered balanced.  If resilence is buffed, I'm guessing Rogues and DKs would see less representation.

And Paladins are still entirely way too strong, and would need to be almost halved in representation to be considered balanced.  A buff to resilience would hurt the Paladin representation.  A nerf to Death Knights (3.0.8), would most likely hurt Paladin representation.

Looking forward to seeing the effects on class representation when 3.0.8 goes live (hopefully next tuesday).  There is no plan for Blizzard to buff resilience at the moment, but I am guessing they are considering it.

  

Top 100 Arena Stats: S5 Week 3

2v2				3v3				5v5
Paladin	66	33.3%		Paladin	77	25.9%		Paladin	107	21.4%
DK	50	25.3%		DK	45	15.2%		Mage	57	11.4%
Rogue	22	11.1%		Mage	40	13.5%		DK	54	10.8%
Mage	15	7.6%		Rogue	34	11.4%		Priest	52	10.4%
Priest	12	6.1%		Hunter	33	11.1%		Warrior	48	9.6%
Druid	11	5.6%		Priest	29	9.8%		Shaman	47	9.4%
Hunter	7	3.5%		Druid	14	4.7%		Hunter	44	8.8%
Shaman	6	3.0%		Warrior	14	4.7%		Druid	41	8.2%
Warrior	4	2.0%		Shaman	8	2.7%		Rogue	36	7.2%
Warlock	1	0.5%		Warlock	3	1.0%		Warlock	14	2.8%
Total	194			Total	297			Total	500
Top 100 Avg: Week 3				Lvl 80 (US + EU)				In order to balance:
Paladin	26.9%			Paladin	14%			Warlock		386.66%
DK	17.1%			DK	12%			Warrior		120.40%
Mage	10.8%			Warrior	12%			Druid		78.67%
Rogue	9.9%			Druid	11%			Shaman		58.69%
Priest	8.7%			Mage	10%			Hunter		15.16%
Hunter	7.8%			Hunter	9%			Priest		2.96%
Druid	6.2%			Priest	9%			Mage		-7.53%
Warrior	5.4%			Rogue	8%			Rogue		-19.35%
Shaman	5.0%			Shaman	8%			DK		-29.69%
Warlock	1.4%			Warlock	7%			Paladin		-47.93%
Top 100 Avg: Week 2				Weekly Trending
Paladin	25.4%			Warlock	19.9%
DK	18.3%			Druid	8.0%
Rogue	11.0%			Paladin	5.9%
Mage	10.4%			Mage	4.0%
Priest	8.6%			Priest	1.6%
Hunter	7.8%			Warrior	0.8%
Shaman	6.2%			Hunter	0.2%
Druid	5.7%			DK	-6.7%
Warrior	5.4%			Rogue	-9.8%
Warlock	1.2%			Shaman	-18.7%

Class Representation vs. Top 100 Average

Across the US and Europe this is the class representation at level 80 as of today:

14% - Paladin
12% - Death Knight
12% - Warrior
11% - Druid
10% - Mage
 9% - Hunter
 9% - Priest
 8% - Rogue
 8% - Shaman
 7% - Warlock

What does this mean?  We would expect (if classes were perfectly balanced and every player had the same skill) to have Paladins be twice as numerous in the Top 100 as Warlocks, since there are 2x more Paladins than Warlocks.

What we are seeing is a bit different at the moment since balance is definitely not perfect.

Here is the class average in the Top 100 (2v2, 3v3 and 5v5 combined) after Week 2 of Season 5:

25.4% - Paladin
18.3% - Death Knight
11.0% - Rogue
10.4% - Mage
 8.6% - Priest
 7.8% - Hunter
 6.2% - Shaman
 5.7% - Druid
 5.4% - Warrior
 1.2% - Warlock

As you can see Warlocks are definitely not half the characters of Paladins in the Top 100.

Too perfectly balance the classes (using the average Top 100) each class would need to see a rise/fall of:

486.85% - Warlock
123.13% - Warrior
 91.91% - Druid
 29.86% - Shaman
 15.05% - Hunter
  4.81% - Priest

 -3.53% - Mage
-27.60% - Rogue
-34.36% - Death Knight
-44.95% - Paladin


Note: I know this is tunnel vision on the Top 100, but they are the only stats I can easily get my hands on at the moment.